Discussion of skill improvement in marine ecosystem dynamic models based on parameter optimization and skill assessment -- Journal of Oceanology and Limnology,2016,34(4):683-696

	Cite this paper:
	SHEN Chengcheng, SHI Honghua, LIU Yongzhi, LI Fen, DING Dewen. Discussion of skill improvement in marine ecosystem dynamic models based on parameter optimization and skill assessment[J]. Journal of Oceanology and Limnology, 2016, 34(4): 683-696

Discussion of skill improvement in marine ecosystem dynamic models based on parameter optimization and skill assessment

SHEN Chengcheng^1,2, SHI Honghua², LIU Yongzhi³, LI Fen³, DING Dewen²

1 College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China;
2 The First Institute of Oceanography, State Oceanic Administration, Qingdao 266061, China;
3 School of Mathematical Sciences, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China

Abstract:

Marine ecosystem dynamic models (MEDMs) are important tools for the simulation and prediction of marine ecosystems. This article summarizes the methods and strategies used for the improvement and assessment of MEDM skill, and it attempts to establish a technical framework to inspire further ideas concerning MEDM skill improvement. The skill of MEDMs can be improved by parameter optimization (PO), which is an important step in model calibration. An efficient approach to solve the problem of PO constrained by MEDMs is the global treatment of both sensitivity analysis and PO. Model validation is an essential step following PO, which validates the efficiency of model calibration by analyzing and estimating the goodness-of-fit of the optimized model. Additionally, by focusing on the degree of impact of various factors on model skill, model uncertainty analysis can supply model users with a quantitative assessment of model confidence. Research on MEDMs is ongoing; however, improvement in model skill still lacks global treatments and its assessment is not integrated. Thus, the predictive performance of MEDMs is not strong and model uncertainties lack quantitative descriptions, limiting their application. Therefore, a large number of case studies concerning model skill should be performed to promote the development of a scientific and normative technical framework for the improvement of MEDM skill.

Received: 2015-03-04 Revised: 2015-05-08

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Articles by SHEN Chengcheng

Articles by SHI Honghua

Articles by LIU Yongzhi

Articles by LI Fen

Articles by DING Dewen

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