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LÜ Xianqing, WANG Daosheng, YAN Bing, YANG Hua. Coastal sea level variability in the Bohai Bay: influence of atmospheric forcing and prediction[J]. HaiyangYuHuZhao, 2019, 37(2): 486-497

Coastal sea level variability in the Bohai Bay: influence of atmospheric forcing and prediction

LÜ Xianqing1,2, WANG Daosheng3,4,2, YAN Bing1, YANG Hua1
1 Key Laboratory of Engineering Sediment of the Ministry of Transport/National Engineering Laboratory for Port Hydraulic Construction Technology, Tianjin Research Institute for Water Transport Engineering, M. O. T., Tianjin 300456, China;
2 Physical Oceanography Laboratory/CIMST, Ocean University of China and Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, Qingdao 266100, China;
3 College of Marine Science and Technology, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China;
4 Shenzhen Research Institute, China University of Geosciences, Shenzhen 518057, China
The sea level variabilities, especially the atmosphere-driven sea level variabilities, which are different in studies on diverse areas and timescales, need to be further documented in the Bohai Bay. Coastal sea level data and coincident meteorological data collected hourly at two observation stations (E1 and E2) in the Bohai Bay, which is a typical semi-enclosed coastal sea in China, are analyzed for the period from 19 August 2014 to 18 November 2014. The sub-sampled low-pass (<0.8 cpd) sea levels (SLSLs) at E1 and E2 are almost the same as each other, while the winds are not. On the whole, SLSLs at E1 and E2 are dominantly influenced by the across-shore wind; in detail, the dominant wind orientation at E1 is 65° measured clockwise from north, and SLSL at E2 is significantly influenced by the sub-sampled wind (SW) at 55°. Regression of SLSL onto the corresponding SW in dominant orientation and the atmospheric pressure is used to predict SLSL, which make the frequency of occurrences when the predicted total sea level is within 0.15 m from the observed values increase to 66.03% and 58.08% at E1 and E2 from original 36.71% and 34.80% without using it, respectively. The results indicate that for the prediction of the total sea level variability in the coastal shallow waters, the SLSL influenced by the atmospheric forcing, including local wind and atmospheric pressure, can be predicted using the multivariable linear regression model.
Key words:    coastal sea level|atmospheric forcing|Bohai Bay|prediction   
Received: 2017-12-14   Revised: 2018-02-08
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