Cite this paper:
LI Tao, WANG Fangdong, HOU Jingming, CHE Zhumei, DONG Jianxi. Validation of an operational forecasting system of sea dike risk in the southern Zhejiang Province, South China[J]. HaiyangYuHuZhao, 2019, 37(6): 1929-1940

Validation of an operational forecasting system of sea dike risk in the southern Zhejiang Province, South China

LI Tao1,2, WANG Fangdong3, HOU Jingming1,2, CHE Zhumei4, DONG Jianxi1,2
1 National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center, Beijing 100081, China;
2 Key Laboratory of Research on Marine Hazards Forecasting of State Oceanic Administration, Beijing 100081, China;
3 Beijing Space Flight Control Center, Beijing 100094, China;
4 Marine Monitoring and Forecasting Center of Zhejiang Province, Hangzhou 310007, China
Abstract:
In this study, an operational forecasting system of sea dike risk in the southern Zhejiang Province, South China was developed based on a coupled storm-surge and wave model. This forecasting system is important because of the high cost of storm-surge damage and the need for rapid emergency planning. A comparison with astronomical tides in 2016 and the validation of storm surges and high water marks of 20 typhoons verified that the forecast system has a good simulation ability. The system can forecast relatively realistic water levels and wave heights as shown under the parametric atmospheric forces simulated in a case study; the sea dikes in credible high risk were mainly located in the estuaries, rivers, and around the islands in the southern Zhejiang. Therefore, the forecast system is applicable in the southern Zhejiang with a support to the effective prevention from typhoon storm-surge damage.
Key words:    storm surge|sea dike|operational forecast|southern Zhejiang Province|risk calculation   
Received: 2019-01-16   Revised: 2019-04-30
Tools
PDF (4934 KB) Free
Print this page
Add to favorites
Email this article to others
Authors
Articles by LI Tao
Articles by WANG Fangdong
Articles by HOU Jingming
Articles by CHE Zhumei
Articles by DONG Jianxi
References:
Booij N, Ris R C, Holthuijsen L H. 1999. A third-generation wave model for coastal regions, Part Ⅰ, model description and validation. Journal of Geophysical Research, 104:7 649-7 666.
Bunya S, Dietrich J C, Westerink J J, Ebersole B A, Smith J M, Atkinson J H, Jensen R, Resio D T, Luettich R A, Dawson C, Cardone V J, Cox A T, Powell M D, Westerink H J, Roberts H J. 2010.A high-resolution coupled riverine flow, tide, wind, wind wave, and storm surge model for Southern Louisiana and Mississippi. Part Ⅰ:model development and validation. Monthly Weather Review, 138(2):345-377.
Dawson C, Westerink J J, Feyen J C, Pothina D. 2006.Continuous, discontinuous and coupled discontinuouscontinuous galerkin finite element methods for the shallow water equations. International Journal for Numerical Methods in Fluids, 52(1):63-88.
Dietrich J C, Tanaka S, Westerink J J, Dawson C N, Luettich R A Jr, Zijlema M, Holthuijsen L H, Smith J M, Westerink L G, Westerink H J. 2012. Performance of the unstructuredmesh, SWAN+ADCIRC model in computing hurricane waves and surge. Journal of Scientific Computing, 52(2):468-497.
Dietrich J C, Zijlema M, Westerink J J, Holthuijsen L H, Dawson C, Luettich R A Jr, Jensen R E, Smith J M, Stelling G S, Stone G W. 2011. Modeling hurricane waves and storm surge using integrally-coupled, scalable computations. Coastal Engineering, 58(1):45-65.
Funakoshi Y, Hagen S C, Bacopoulos P. 2008. Coupling of hydrodynamic and wave models:case study for Hurricane Floyd (1999) hindcast. Journal of Waterway, Port, Coastal, and Ocean Engineering, 134(6):321-335.
Holland G J. 1980. An analytic model of the wind and pressure profiles in hurricanes. Monthly Weather Review, 108(8):1 212-1 218.
Huang Z K, Huang L. 2005. Tidal Theory and Calculation.China Ocean University Press, Qingdao. p.9. (in Chinese)
Kerr P C, Martyr R C, Donahue A S, Hope M E, Westerink J J, Luettich R A Jr, Kennedy A B, Dietrich J C, Dawson C, Westerink H J. 2013. U.S. IOOS coastal and ocean modeling testbed:evaluation of tide, wave, and hurricane surge response sensitivities to mesh resolution and friction in the Gulf of Mexico. Journal of Geophysical Research:Oceans, 118(9):4 633-4 661.
Luettich R A Jr, Westerink J J, Scheffner N W. 1992. ADCIRC:an Advanced Three-Dimensional Circulation Model for Shelves, Coasts, and Estuaries:Report I:Theory and Methodology of ADCIRC-2DDI and ADCIRC-3DL.Dredging Research Program Tech. Rep. DRP-92-6, US Army Corps of Engineers, Washington. 137p.
Matsumoto K, Takanezawa T, Ooe M. 2000. Ocean tide models developed by assimilating TOPEX/POSEIDON altimeter data into hydrodynamical model:a global model and a regional model around Japan. Journal of Oceanography, 56(5):567-581.
Ministry of Natural Resources of the People's Republic of China. 2018. China marine disaster bulletin. http://www.mnr.gov.cn/sj/sjfw/hy/gbgg/zghyzhgb/. (in Chinese)
Smith W H F, Sandwell D T. 1997. Global sea floor topography from satellite altimetry and ship depth soundings. Science, 227(5334):1 956-1 962.
State Oceanic Administration of China. 2008-2017. China marine disaster bulletin. http://www.mnr.gov.cn/sj/sjfw/hy/gbgg/zghyzhgb/. (in Chinese)
State Oceanic Administration of China. 2016. HY/T 195-2015 Technical Guide for Forecast of Storm Surge Overtopping of Dike. China Standards Press, Beijing. p.4. (in Chinese)
Tanaka S, Bunya S, Westerink J J, Dawson C, Luettich R A Jr. 2011. Scalability of an unstructured grid continuous galerkin based hurricane storm surge model. Journal of Scientific Computing, 46(3):329-358.
Tu J Y, Chou C, Chu P S. 2009. The abrupt shift of typhoon activity in the vicinity of Taiwan and its association with western North Pacific-East Asian climate change. Journal of Climate, 22(13):3 617-3 628.
Westerink J J, Luettich R A, Feyen J C, Atkinson J H, Dawson C, Roberts H J, Powell M D, Dunion J P, Kubatko E J, Pourtaheri H. 2008. A basin-to channel-scale unstructured grid hurricane storm surge model applied to southern Louisiana. Monthly Weather Review, 136(3):833-864.
Willoughby H E, Rahn M E. 2004. Parametric representation of the primary hurricane vortex. Part Ⅰ:observations and evaluation of the Holland (1980) model. Monthly Weather Review, 132(12):3 033-3 048.
Ying M, Zhang W, Yu H, Lu X Q, Feng J X, Fan Y X, Zhu Y T, Chen D Q. 2014. An overview of the China meteorological administration tropical cyclone database. Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, 31(2):287-301.
Yuan K R, Shang S P, Xie Y S, Zhang L, Zhang Y D, Zhang F. 2014. The simulation of typhoon waves in Taiwan Strait.Journal of Xiamen University (Natural Science), 53(3):413-417. (in Chinese with English abstract)
Zhang K Q, Li Y P, Liu H Q, Rhome J, Forbes C. 2013.Transition of the coastal and estuarine storm tide model to an operational storm surge forecast model:a case study of the Florida coast. Weather and Forecasting, 28(4):1 019-1 037.
Zheng X, Yu T. 2009. High availability massive storage system of Sunway 3000A. Computer Engineering & Science, 31(S1):40-41, 45. (in Chinese with English abstract)
Zijlema M. 2010.Computation of wind-wave spectra in coastal waters with SWAN on unstructured grids. Coastal Engineering, 57(3):267-277.