Cite this paper:
LI Tao, WANG Fangdong, HOU Jingming, CHE Zhumei, DONG Jianxi. Validation of an operational forecasting system of sea dike risk in the southern Zhejiang Province, South China[J]. HaiyangYuHuZhao, 2019, 37(6): 1929-1940

Validation of an operational forecasting system of sea dike risk in the southern Zhejiang Province, South China

LI Tao1,2, WANG Fangdong3, HOU Jingming1,2, CHE Zhumei4, DONG Jianxi1,2
1 National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center, Beijing 100081, China;
2 Key Laboratory of Research on Marine Hazards Forecasting of State Oceanic Administration, Beijing 100081, China;
3 Beijing Space Flight Control Center, Beijing 100094, China;
4 Marine Monitoring and Forecasting Center of Zhejiang Province, Hangzhou 310007, China
In this study, an operational forecasting system of sea dike risk in the southern Zhejiang Province, South China was developed based on a coupled storm-surge and wave model. This forecasting system is important because of the high cost of storm-surge damage and the need for rapid emergency planning. A comparison with astronomical tides in 2016 and the validation of storm surges and high water marks of 20 typhoons verified that the forecast system has a good simulation ability. The system can forecast relatively realistic water levels and wave heights as shown under the parametric atmospheric forces simulated in a case study; the sea dikes in credible high risk were mainly located in the estuaries, rivers, and around the islands in the southern Zhejiang. Therefore, the forecast system is applicable in the southern Zhejiang with a support to the effective prevention from typhoon storm-surge damage.
Key words:    storm surge|sea dike|operational forecast|southern Zhejiang Province|risk calculation   
Received: 2019-01-16   Revised: 2019-04-30
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